decan 20071029 1042 - TreePlan（去壳20071029 1042 - TreePlan）.pdf

Introduction to Decision Trees 14 A decision tree can be used as a model for a sequential decision problems under uncertainty. A decision tree describes graphically the decisions to be made, the events that may occur, and the outcomes associated with combinations of decisions and events. Probabilities are assigned to the events, and values are determined for each outcome. A major goal of the analysis is to determine the best decisions. 14.1 DECISION TREE STRUCTURE Decision tree models include such concepts as nodes, branches, terminal values, strategy, payoff distribution, certain equivalent, and the rollback method. The following problem illustrates the basic concepts. DriveTek Problem, Part A DriveTek Research Institute discovers that a computer company wants a new storage device for a proposed new computer system. Since the computer company does not have research people available to develop the new storage device, it will subcontract the development to an independent research firm. The computer company has offered a fixed fee for the best proposal for developing the new storage device. The contract will go to the firm with the best technical plan and the highest reputation for technical competence. DriveTek Research Institute wants to enter the competition. Management estimates a moderate cost for preparing a proposal, but they are concerned that they may not win the contract. If DriveTek decides to prepare a proposal, and if they win the contract, their engineers are not sure about how they will develop the storage device. They are considering three alternative approaches. The first approach is a very expensive mechanical method, and the engineers are certain they can develop a successful model with this approach. A second approach involves electronic components. The engineers think that the electronic approach is a relatively inexpensive method for developing a model of the stora