人民币汇率升值预期对我国国内生产成本的影响（The influence of RMB exchange rate appreciation expectation on domestic production cost）.docVIP

人民币汇率升值预期对我国国内生产成本的影响（The influence of RMB exchange rate appreciation expectation on domestic production cost） The influence of RMB exchange rate appreciation expectation on domestic production cost Abstract: since the reform and opening to the outside world, China has gained a great deal of interest in international trade by virtue of the cost advantage of domestic production. Export stimulated the rapid economic growth, however, the problem of appreciation of the local currency caused by the persistent surplus has become a dilemma in Chinas economic development. Although the exchange rate appreciation may decrease, but the competitiveness of the export sector, in theory, the appreciation of the exchange rate also can alleviate the pressure of domestic inflation, and to reduce the price of imported raw materials, thereby reducing domestic production costs. However, since the reform, the RMB appreciation does not reduce inflationary pressures, on the contrary, the appreciation has been accompanied by rising prices, at the same time, the linkage between the RMB exchange rate, and domestic asset prices and commodity prices more obvious. Starting with the relationship between RMB exchange rate expectation, asset price and price, this paper studies the influence of RMB exchange rate appreciation expectation on domestic production cost. The result shows that the appreciation of RMB is expected to lead to the rise of domestic production costs, that is, the loss of cost advantage. Keywords RMB exchange rate expectation; cost advantage; asset price; inflation; I. Introduction Since joining the WTO, Chinas openness has been deepening, while the rapid economic growth at the same time, the problem of external imbalances has become increasingly prominent, domestic inflation pressure. Inflation means that the domestic commodity cost advantage is gradually lost, and this cost advantage loss, effect of exchange rate appreciation than exports caused by the loss of price advantage i