如何评估破产风险（How to assess bankruptcy risk）.docVIP

如何评估破产风险（How to assess bankruptcy risk） How to assess bankruptcy risk? Arman, a financial expert in the US in the 60s of last century, invented a method of analyzing the bankruptcy risk of Forecast Ltd through a variety of patterns, known as the Z value analysis. Arman in the manufacturing enterprises choose 33 bankrupt firms and good enterprises as samples, collected samples of enterprise balance sheet and income statement of the relevant data, and by sorting out from 22 variables selected in the prediction of five variables bankruptcy most useful, after a comprehensive analysis to establish a discriminant function: in this he gave the model 5 basic financial indicators with different weights, thus to calculate the bankruptcy risk factor - Z value. The Z value of the 5 variables in the model is X1 (operating assets / total assets), X2 (retained earnings / total assets), X3 (EBIT / total assets), X4 (equity / total liabilities), X5 (sales / total assets). The weights of the 5 variables are 0.717, 0.847, 3.11, 0.42 and 0.998 respectively. That is to say, the bankruptcy risk coefficients Z, =0.717 (X1), +0.847 (X2), +3.11 (X3), +0.420 (X4), +0.998 (X5) It is interesting that although the index and weight in this model can not prove its rationality, it is very effective in practical applications. Using the model, Arman tested 33 bankrupt companies and 33 non bankrupt companies and found that the Z value analysis correctly predicted the fate of 63 of the 66 companies. Therefore, the Z analysis method of bankruptcy risk coefficient is widely used. According to the empirical analysis, Arman put forward several critical values determine the risk of bankruptcy, when the Z value is greater than 2.9, shows that there is no risk of bankruptcy, when the Z value is less than 1.2, that there is a high risk of bankruptcy, and when the Z value between 1.2 and 2.9 was called the gray area, shows that the companys financial the situation is not ideal, there is a certain risk of bankr