繁忙终端空域飞行冲突风险 - Journal Of NUAA - 南京航空航天大学.PDF

45 4 V ol . 4 5 N o . 4 2013 8 Journal of N anjing U niversit y of A ero nautics A st ronautics A ug . 20 13 王世锦 ( 2 10016) : 为了量化繁忙终端空域的安全水平 在风险评估理论框架下 针对繁忙终端空域雷达管制 行特点 对航 空器的纵向飞行冲突风险进行了研究。建立了航空器间违反终端空域 行间隔标准的数学模型 采用事件模型 研究了航空器间违反纵向最低管制间隔产生飞行冲突的分析方法 确定了风险等级的判定方法; 最后以上海终 端空域2011 年的飞行流量为例验证了该方法的可行性 得出了进、离场处的飞行冲突风险等级为 “可容忍”水 平。研究结果使得量化繁忙终端空域的飞行冲突风险成为了可能。 : 终端空域; 飞行冲突; 风险评估; 间隔; 安全性 : U 8: A : 1005-26 15( 20 13) 04-05 38-06 Flight Conflict Risk in Busy Terminal Airspace W ang S hij in ( Colleg e of Civil A viatio n N anjing U niver sity of A er onautics A stro nautics N anjing 2 10016 China ) Abstract: In o rder t o quant if y t he bu sy t erm inal airspace saf et y level t he aircraft long it u dinal flig ht con - flict risk is r esearched under the t heor et ical framew ork o f r isk asses sment and in r espo nse t o t he charac- teristic of bu sy t er minal airsp ace. T he mat hem at ical mo del of violat io n of op eration separat ion st andard in t erminal air sp ace bet w een aircraft s is est ablished . On t h at b asis t he met ho d u sing event mo del is g iv - en f or analyzing f light conflicts cau sed by viol at ion of minimum r adar cont rol sep arat io n. F urt hermo re a judgm ent m et hod of risk level of flig ht conflict is pro vided. F inally t he f light flo w data o f Sh ang hai t er - minal airsp ace in 2011 is used as an ex ample t o t est ify t he f easibilit y of the met hod abov e-m ent io ned . It is concl uded t h at t he flight conflict risk lev el in arrival and dep ar ture is in t he t olerable r eg ion . T he r