中国煤炭消费对PM 25 污染的影响研究.PDF

丨2016年第2期 中国煤炭消费对 PM2.5 污染的影响研究 * 薛文博 ，武卫玲，付飞，哈艳梅，雷宇，陈潇君，王金南，许艳玲 （环境保护部环境规划院，北京 100012 ） 摘  要 国务院颁布的《大气污染防治行动计划》明确提出制定国家煤炭消费总量中长期控制目标，到2017年， 煤炭占能源消费总量比重降低到65%以下，然而煤炭消费对PM2.5 污染的贡献到底多大，这是当前亟待 研究的科学问题。为定量分析煤炭消费对我国PM2.5 污染的影响，本研究首先计算了2012年煤炭消费产 生的大气污染物排量，然后利用CAMx空气质量模型，分别采用组分分析法和情景模拟法两种方法研究 了煤炭消费对全国PM 污染的影响。组分分析法研究表明，煤炭消费对全国PM 年均浓度的贡献率约 2.5 2.5 为61%，其中煤炭直接燃烧、煤炭相关行业的贡献率分别约为37%、24%；情景模拟法研究表明，煤炭 消费对全国PM 年均浓度的贡献率约为56%。因此，我国由于煤炭消费对全国PM 年均浓度的贡献率 2.5 2.5 为56%~61%。 关键词  煤炭消费；PM2.5；WRF；CAMx； 中图分类号：F426;X51            文章编号：1674-6252（2016）02-0094-05 文献标识码：A                   DOI：10.16868/j.cnki.1674-6252.2016.02.094 Impact of Coal Consumption to PM2.5 Pollution in China * XueWenbo , Wu Weiling, Fu Fei, Ha Yanmei, Lei Yu, Chen Xiaojun,Wang Jinnan, XuYanling ( Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012 ) Abstract:In order to quantitatively analyze the impact of coal consumption to PM2.5 pollution in China, emissions of air pollutants caused by coal consumption in 2012 were calculated.And its impact to PM2.5 pollution was analyzed by component analysis method and scenario simulation method, respectively, based on CAMx air quality model. Component analysis showed that contribution rate to the annual average concentration of PM2.5 from coal consumption in 2012 was 61%, in which contribution rate of coal direct combustion and coal related industries was 37% and 24% respectively. Scenario simulation study indicated that the contribution rate was 56%. In view of this, contribution rate to the annual average concentrations of PM2.5 from coal con