甘肃冬油菜种植气候适宜性精细化区划-中国生态农业学报.DOC

甘肃省冬油菜种植适宜性及影响因子评价 张仁陟1,2** 孙万仓3 张 军1,2 王鹤龄4 （1.甘肃农业大学资源与环境学院兰州 730070；2.兰州 730070；.甘肃农业大学农学院 兰州 730070；.中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所，兰州 730000） 摘要全球气候变暖背景下，随着气候变化、油菜栽培技术的进步和油菜新品种的育成推广，我国传统油菜生产格局和种植结构发生明显变化，甘肃省冬油菜的种植地带也随之向北扩展，种植的海拔高度抬升，种植面积和产量显著增加。研究甘肃省冬油菜种植适宜性，对改进甘肃省油菜生产布局，合理调整农作物种植结构具有重要意义。本研究分析影响甘肃省冬油菜种植分布的生态因子及其特征，评价甘肃省冬油菜种植适宜性，研究结果表明：甘肃省冬油菜种植分布概率为00.89，按其分布概率可将甘肃省冬油菜种植区域划分为不适宜种植区域、次适宜种植区域、适宜种植区域和最适宜种植区域，可以种植冬油菜的区域占甘肃省总面积的70%，大于实际冬油菜种植面积，冬油菜在甘肃省种植具有很大的发展潜力。影响甘肃省冬油菜种植分布的6个主导气候因子阈值为：负积温≥(800 ℃，最冷月最低温度≥(20 ℃，最冷月平均温度≥(15 ℃，年平均温度≥4 ℃、极端低温≥(28 ℃、50 mm≤生育期降水量≤200 mm。 关键词冬油菜最大熵模型种植适宜性甘肃省 Evaluation on planting suitablity and its effection factors of winter rapeseed in Gansu Province ZHOU Dongmei1, ZHANG Renzhi1,2＊, SUN ancang3, ZHANG Jun1,2, WANG he-lin4 （1.College of Resources and Environmental Science, Gansu Agricultural University，Lanzhou 730070；2. Research Center of Water-saving Agriculture of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730070； 3. College of Agronomy, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070；4. Institute of Arid Meteorology China Meteorological Adminstration, Lanzhou 730020) Abstract Research have showed that under global climate change， development of winter rapeseed growth technology and the introduction of new varieties presents a great change in the traditional production pattern and crop structure of winter rapeseed。 The planting regions have been extended northwards and altitude has risen as a result the planting area and crop output has increased in Gansu province of China. By analyzing climatic adaption for winter rapeseed, this paper aimed to provide a reference for improving winter rapeseed production layout and restructuring agricultural construction.using GIS spatial analysis functions and maximum entropy models。 This study analyzed the main influencing factors and its characteristics of distribution of winter rapeseed planting in Gansu Province and simulates the climatic adaption for winter rapeseed. The study provides reasonable and scientific suggestion