基于持久收入和财富目标的跨时消费选择_中国城市居民消费行为的实证研究.pdf

24 2 Vol. 24, No12 20072 tatistical Research Feb. 2007 * 基于持久收入和财富目标的跨时消费选择 ) ) ) 中国城市居民消费行为的实证研究 :标准生命周期消费理论假定消费者有能力 解复杂的动态优化问题, 这一假定至少在中国是不能 成立的。本文从中国实际出发, 提出了关于中国城市居民消费行为的基本假设。即由于存在信贷约束和消费支出 高峰, 中国城市居民跨时消费的理性选择是: 在避免未来发生流动性约束的前提下尽可能平滑各个时期的消费。 与之相对应, 本文假定中国城市居民跨时消费决策的主要依据是财富目标和持久收入, 并在此基础上构建了经济 计量模型。实证分析的主要结论是:( 1) 1990 年以来, 随着城市居民财富目标的不断提高, 持久收入的边际消费倾 向呈持续下降趋势。(2) 中国城市居民的消费行为的确存在一个学习和适应过程。 :持久收入; 财富目标;状态空间模型 :C812 :A : 1002- 4565(2007)02- 0038- 06 Intertemporal Consumption under Permanent Income and Wealth Target: An Empirical Stu y of Urban Househol s Consumption in China Hang Bin Abstract:The stan ar life2 cycle mo el of consumption assumes the consumer to be capable of solving complex ynamic optimization problem, while the stu y of this paper in icatesthat this hypothesis oes not hol true at least in China. In fact, ue to cre it constraint an expecte consumption peak, rational choice for urban househol s in China is to save for potential liqui ity constraint in a certain perio an then smooth their consumption over other perio s. The author assumes that the consumers make consumption ecision accor ing to their wealth target an permanent income, then buil s econometric mo els consequently. Results of empirical analysis are as follows: ( 1) Since 1990, ue tothe continuous increasing of urban househol s. wealth target, their marginal propensity to consume out of permanent income has been ecreasing. (2) The process of learning an a justment of consum