大型发输电组合系统可靠性.PDFVIP

1989年5月 重 庆 大 学 学 报 Vo1．12，№．3 第12卷第 3期 JOURNAL OF CHONGQING UNIVERSITY M8y．1988 大型发输 电组合系统可靠性 评估 的 Monte-Carlo法 THE MONTE—CARLO METH0D FOR RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF LARGE SCALE COMPOSITE GENERET10K—TRANSMISSION SYSTEMS 李 文 沅 孙 洪 波 周 家 启 Li W enyuan San Hongbo Zhou Jiaq[ (电 气 工 程 系) 摘 要 本文提出了一对大型发输电组合系统可靠性评估的Monte—CarIo方 法。它基于分散抽样技术、缺电功率分析法和最小缺电功率优化模型的结告，不仅 计算比较快速，而且也有较高精度；在系统元件增加时，计算量只呈线性增长，西而特 别适于大系统 对故障状态妁抽样模拙，比确定性杖举更接近电力系统运行中故障 发生的实际情况。而且方法很客易推广到计及元件的多状寒、负荷的多永平及负荷 的随机分布特性。文中给出了IEEE—RTS系统的计算结果，并与其它两种方法的 结果作了比较。 关键词 可靠性，组合系统；蒙特卡洛法}分散抽样 ABSTRACT The paPer presents a Monte—carlo m ethod for reliability evaIua· tion of Ia rge seale composite generation transmission system S Th e m ethod J which ． po SS 2sses coputational rapidity nd sufficient accuracy is based on cornb nlng the dispersed sampling ~：echiqlie with the analysis approach and the optimization 111odd of power not supplied B echu$e the amount of talea— ． lation increases only linea rly with the humb er of el em ents。 it is specially sui· t＆ble for large scale ystem S．The Monce—ca rlo sampling dlaws DlOFe near the reaI situation than d eterminate state enanl eration in simalating occurrence of power system outages．AIso the m ethod can be easily generaIiz ed to involve multi．states of eIem ents，nluIti—Ievels and stochastic distribution of 1oadS． The resuIts of IEEE-RTS as exampleJ are given and compa red with olles obtained by using the other two methodS ． KEy WORDS Reliability；cornpo