BSAFC4_PPT_ch04课件.pptVIP

Chapter 4 Basic Probability;Learning Objectives;Important Terms;Assessing Probability;Sample Space;Events;Visualizing Events;Visualizing Events;Mutually Exclusive Events;Collectively Exhaustive Events;Probability;Computing Joint and Marginal Probabilities;Joint Probability Example;Marginal Probability Example;;General Addition Rule;General Addition Rule Example;Computing Conditional Probabilities;What is the probability that a car has a CD player, given that it has AC ? i.e., we want to find P(CD | AC);Conditional Probability Example;Conditional Probability Example;Using Decision Trees;Using Decision Trees;Statistical Independence;Multiplication Rules;Marginal Probability;Bayes’ Theorem;Bayes’ Theorem Example;Let S = successful well U = unsuccessful well P(S) = 0.4 , P(U) = 0.6 (prior probabilities) Define the detailed test event as D Conditional probabilities: P(D|S) = 0.6 P(D|U) = 0.2 Goal is to find P(S|D);Bayes’ Theorem Example;Given the detailed test, the revised probability of a successful well has risen to 0.667 from the original estimate of 0.4;Counting Rules;Counting Rules;Counting Rules;Counting Rules;Counting Rules;Chapter Summary