国外模式气候预测调研课件.pptVIP

国外模式气候预测调研;CPC IRI Japan Hadley APCC EC BOM; ;The NCEP Coupled Climate Forecast System;The current CFS model;The other components of CFS;Ensemble strategy;CFS Products;CFS product (II);Seasonal retrospective forecasts by CFS to provide calibration and a priori skill assessment 15-member ensemble over 23 years from 1981-2003 Runs are complete 10 month runs Initial atmospheric states: Five 00Z analyses centered on the 1st, the 11th and the 21th day of each month from the Reanalysis-2 archive Initial ocean states: the 1st, the 11th and the 21th of each month from NCEP GODAS (Global Ocean Data Assimilation System);Retrospective forecast productsmonthly and seasonal mean;教剖常饺枕站悟蜜亩皇壶洁则斗镀眠莱翁驮猎羡雾篷屿慎邦为咳刁诺药阂国外模式气候预测调研课件国外模式气候预测调研课件;Plan for the future;;; Indonesian through flow is completely open in a larger area and the surrounding marginal seas are fully resolved as ocean (not land) points Use runoff data from NCAR (Dai and Trenberth) Use real fresh water flux, instead of “virtual salt flux”. This method gives more accuracy in the simulation of sea surface height ;Ocean Developmental work for the future MOM4 Test higher horizontal resolution everywhere for MOM4 (? degree globally, or ? degree in the tropics decreasing to ? degree at 30N and 30S) Increased number of vertical levels in the ocean mixed layer, from 40 to 50 Use new, more efficient, coupler, with more frequent coupling to the ocean (than the present once a day) Include river (fresh water) runoff from climatology or NOAH land model ;NEW SEA ICE MODEL Xingren Wu Thermodynamics : 3-layer (Winton, 2000) Dynamics : EVP Model (Hunke and Dukowicz, 1997) The sea ice model was coupled to MOM4. The model was forced using R-2 climatology Sample results was for Year-20, March ;TESTING CHANGES IN ATMOSPHERIC PART OF THE CFS ;GFS Developmental work for the future Test higher horizontal resolution (T126) Test new convection scheme (RAS) Test hybrid vertical coordinate (sigma-pressure, sigma-theta) Test improved bounda