气候变化对沈阳地区大田作物的影响.PDFVIP

中国农学通报 2012,28(23):266-270 Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin 气候变化对沈阳地区大田作物的影响 1 1 2 刁 军 ，董晓明 ，姜晓燕 1 2 （沈阳市东陵区气象局沈阳110168，沈阳市气象局，沈阳110168） 摘 要：为了当地农业结构调整、保障粮食生产提供依据，研究沈阳地区1951—2010 年气候变化，采用气 候倾向率及标准偏差方法对气候变化做定量分析。结果表明：沈阳地区年平均气温倾向率为 0.196℃/ 10a ，气候跃变之后年平均气温升高0.7℃；年降水量倾向率为-16.724 mm/ 10a ，气候跃变之后降 水减少40mm ，多雨年在减少，少雨年在增加；第一场透雨出现时间被推迟，个别年份播种期受到限制。 气候跃变之后终霜日提前，初霜日后推，延长了无霜期，作物播种期可适当早播；降水量减少、第一场透 雨出现时间后延和不稳定，对作物生长和播种影响较大，成为农作物正常生长和产量稳定提高的限制因 素。 关键词：气候跃变；大田作物；倾向率；标准偏差；沈阳 中图分类号：S162.3 文献标志码：A 论文编号：2012-0744 TheImpactofClimateChangeontheRegionalFieldCropsinShenyang 1 1 2 Diao Jun , Dong Xiaoming , Jiang Xiaoyan 1 ( DonglingMeteorologicalBureauofShenyangCityinLiaoning, Shenyang 110168; 2MetematicalBureauShenyang, Shenyang 110168) Abstract: To provide evidence for agricultural structure adjustment and guarantee grain production , using climate tendency rate and standard deviation quantitative analysis method of climate change, researched climate change in Shenyang on 1951 to 2010. The results showed that: In Shenyang area, annual average temperature tendency rate is 0.196℃/ 10a, which increased by 0.7℃in condition of climate jump. The annual precipitation tendency rate decreased 40mm on condition of climate jump, which compared with normal value is -16.724 mm/10a. Meanwhile, rainy year was decreasing; in contras