基于CA-Markov模型的港口陆域演化研究.PDFVIP

基于 CA-Markov 模型的港口陆域演化研究 宋向群，蒋欣昀，王文渊，张 祺 （大连理工大学 建设工程学部，辽宁 大连 116024） 摘要：针对港城用地相互制约引起的港口陆域演化问题，利用 CA-Markov 模型模拟了港口陆域的发展格局。模型中综合考 虑了自然、社会、经济和政策等因素对港口建设适宜性的影响，并采用层次分析法确定各因素的权重。在准确模拟大连港 2013 年实际港口陆域格局的基础上，对 2020 年大连港的陆域分布情景进行了预测。研究结果表明，CA-Markov 模型提供了 一种定量分析和预测港口陆域演化的方法，能够为港口的发展规划提供科学参考。 关键词：港口陆域演化；CA-Markov 模型；土地利用；地理信息系统 中图分类号：U651+ .5 文献标识码:A 文章编号：1004-9592（2015）03-0005-04 DOI: 10.16403/j.cnki.ggj Research of Port Land Area Evolution by Using CA-Markov Model Song Xiangqun, Jiang Xinyun, Wang Wenyuan, Zhang Qi （Faculty of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian Liaoning 116024, China ） Abstract: As to port land area evolution caused by mutual restriction of port and city on land utilization, CA-Markov model was applied to simulate the development pattern of port land area, fully analyze the influence of natural environment, society, economy and policies on the suitability of port construction, and the weights of the above factors were determined by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The distribution of Dalian port land area in 2020 was predicted by accurately simulating Dalian port land pattern in 2013. The research results showed that CA-Markov model was applicable to quantitative analysis and the simulation of port land area evolution, which would provide a reference for port development planning. Key words: port land area evolution; CA-Markov model; land utilization; geographic information system 引 言 受到自然、社会、经济、政策等多种因素共同作用。 国内外已有的相关研究，大多集中在港城关系的探 进入新世纪以来，全球范围内的城市化进程不 [1-7]