赤字融通.PPT

* * * * Lerner – generation is everyone alive at same time Alternative – generation is everyone born at the same time Each generation has equal number of people Each lives 20 years Each has fixed income of $12,000/year Internal debt creates burden for future generations * OG model ? using generational accounting to evaluate impact of Government fiscal policies * * Clicking on “Efficiency Considerations” goes to custom show showing PV of spending and taxing under alternative taxing/borrowing decisions Clicking on “χ = ?εLt2” goes to custom show of graph of relationship between tax rate and excess burden * Table shows 3 ways to finance an extra 100 in spending in year 1. Balanced budget – finance spending by raising 100 in taxes in year 1. PV of tax payments is 100 Deficit Finance I – finance by borrowing the 100 in year 1 and paying it back plus interest in year 2. In year 2 110 must be raised in taxes. PV of 110 in one year at 10% interest rate is 100 Deficit Finance II – finance by borrowing 100 in year 1 and never paying back the debt. In all subsequent years the interest on the debt must be paid so taxes must be raised 10 each year to do that. PV of 10 per year until the end of time is 100. * Axes and labels 1st click – curved solid line and dashed lines Click returns to “To tax or borrow” slide 20-* ?2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. All Rights Reserved. ? 2010 The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved McGraw-Hill/Irwin ?2014 by McGraw-Hill Education. All Rights Reserved. 赤字融通 第20章 赤字的規模到底有多大? 赤字 盈餘 預算內赤字 預算外赤字 20-* 赤字到底有多大? 資料來源: Congressional Budget Office [2012b] 20-* 債務到底有多大? 國家(公共)債務 存量 vs. 流量 20-* 債務到底有多大? 資料來源: Congressional Budget Office [2012b] 20-* 解讀赤字與債務的數據 由聯邦準備銀行持有的政府債務 州與地方政府 通貨膨脹的效果 通貨膨脹稅 資本帳與經常帳 有形資產 隱藏性債務 總結 20-* 債務的負擔 法定相對於經濟歸宿 一手向另一手借錢 內部債務 外部債務 20-* 疊代模型 20-* 疊代模型 世代會計 淨稅額的計算 獲得的移轉支付的現值 – 支付的租稅現值 20-* 其它模型 新古典模型 排擠假說 假說的實證的檢定 Ricardian模型 跨世代移轉 融通的形式是無關緊要的 實證的證據 20-* 課稅或借款 受益原則 世代間的公平 效率的考量 χ = ?εLt2 赤字與功能財政 功能財政 道德與政治的考量 聯