全球气候变化背景下的中国减灾战略及行动.pptVIP

Ministry of Civil Affairs, P.R. China 全球气候变化背景下的中国减灾战略与行动 邹铭 Zou Ming 国家减灾委员会办公室 副主任 Deputy Director of the Office for the National Disaster Reduction Commission 民政部救灾救济司 副司长 Deputy Director-General of the Department of Disaster Reduction and Social Relief, Ministry of Civil Affairs. China’s Disaster Reduction Strategies and Actions in the Context of Global Climatic Changes 提 纲 背景：对现状的认识和评估 Background: recognition and assessment of the existing conditions 2. 中国的减灾战略和已取得的重要进展 China’s strategies for disaster reduction and the important progress made 3. 今后5年的主要行动框架 The major action framework for the work in the following five years Outline Background: recognition and assessment of the existing conditions 全球过去150年来最暖的9年出现在最近11年。在过去的100年中，全球平均地表温度升高了0.74±0.18℃，其中尤以1910－1945年，1979－2005年的升温最为明显。 背景：对现状的认识和评估（1） The previous 11 years have witnessed the nine warmest years in the last 150 years. In the last 100 years, the average surface temperature of the globe has risen by 0.74±0.18℃,the most obvious temperature increases occurring during the years 1910－1945 and 1979－2005. Background: recognition and assessment of the existing conditions(1) 2007年1月29日－2月1日，联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第一工作组通过的第四次评估报告中，基于6种可能的排放情景、气候模式对本世纪末全球平均气温进行了预估，低排放情景增温1.8℃，高排放情景的最佳增温估计值为4℃。 背景：对现状的认识和评估（2） ?From Jan 29th to Feb. 1st, 2007,the first work team of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations (联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会)（IPCC）adopted the fourth assessment report in which estimates were made about the average temperature of the globe at the end of this century based on the six possible discharging situations and climate modes. An increase of 1.8℃ is estimated in consideration of a low-level discharging，and an increase of 4℃ is estimated in consideration of a high-level discharging。 Background: recognition and assessment of the existing conditions(2) 近百年来年均气温升高，尤其是北方地区增温明显，连续出现21个暖冬。 区域降水变化波动较大，北方降水量减少，南方降水量有较为明显的增加。 极端天气与气候事件发生的频度和强度加大。 海平面上升加快。 山地冰川加速退缩。