Analysis- The Internet entrepreneurs of black swan thinking（分析u2014u2014黑天鹅的互联网企业家思考）.docVIP

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Analysis- The Internet entrepreneurs of black swan thinking（分析u2014u2014黑天鹅的互联网企业家思考）.doc

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Analysis- The Internet entrepreneurs of black swan thinking（分析u2014u2014黑天鹅的互联网企业家思考）

Analysis: The Internet entrepreneurs of black swan thinking First, a black swan shocked the world Many people will follow their own experience to predict the future, that the world will be like yesterday show that linear development. But such thoughts and predictions are to be dashed. In 1697, before the Europeans I have only seen white swans. The discovery of this black swan is a beautiful story. 1697, European explorer William #8226; Wu Lamin reach the east coast of the Indian Ocean, find a estuaries. He was on the river, the city of Perth in Australia came to this location and found the river drift black swan flocks twinning. This finding another William pleasantly surprised. However, William #8226; Wu Lamin this important discovery brought a surprise not only Europeans, as well as embarrassing. Because, before the Europeans have only seen white swans, they take for granted that all swans are white. Worse, they had the invention of the term ‘black swan’ means impossible things, can not say one thing, do not fly unless say will become the Black Swan White Swan, which assured tone equivalent to China People said that unless ‘rising sun from the west.’ Now, the Australian black swan suddenly appeared, experience thousands of years before the fact vulnerable. Since then 300 years, humans on this black swan event never stopped to reflect. In 2007, Americans #8226; Nassim Nicholas Taleb #8226; to the matter modeled wrote a very influential book - ‘Black Swan: How to cope with unpredictable future.’ Taleb said that before discovery of Australia, the Europeans believe that all swans are white, and the ‘black swan’ metaphor of impossible things. According to empiricism, it is simply a truth, at least it can be regarded as an axiom. But this unshakable faith, just as the first black swan appears and collapsed. Taleb believes that human knowledge through observation or experience obtained has serious limitations and vulnerabilities - just an