中国环境库兹涅茨曲线的再检验.PDFVIP

中国环境库兹涅茨曲线的再检验 天津财经大学 刘月月、刘晓艳、闫俊苗 目录 1、引言 1 2、文献综述2 3、环境库兹涅茨曲线的理论分析3 3.1 概念提出3 3.2 理论解释3 3.2.1 市场机制3 3.2.2 国际贸易4 3.2.3 科技进步4 3.2.4 环境质量需求4 3.3 理论缺陷4 3.3.1 EKC 的内生缺陷4 3.3.2 EKC 的适用局限5 3.3.3 EKC 的指标问题6 4、实证研究7 4.1 指标选取及其经济含义7 4.1.1 指标选取7 4.1.2 指标的经济解释7 4.2 模型设定8 4.2.1 模型选取8 4.2.2 模型检验8 4.3 模型估计 10 4.4 结果分析 11 5、结论 12 参考文献 14 摘要:环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）假说的提出使人们对环境和经济增长的关系认识 更加深刻，但是环境库兹涅茨倒U 型曲线并不是绝对的。为了检验我国环境质量 与经济增长之间是否符合环境库兹涅茨曲线的倒U 型关系，文章选取相关指标进 行实证分析。本文对1991-2010 年我国23 个省 （市、自治区）三个环境污染指 标与经济增长指标做了面板计量模型。实证研究结果表明，三个污染指标与经济 增长之间都呈倒N 型关系，其拟合曲线共有两个转折点，对第二个转折点是一个 倒U 型曲线的拐点,对其进行研究更有现实意义。研究结果符合环境库兹涅茨曲 线的思想，即经济真的增长到一定程度后，环境质量会得到改善。 关键词：环境库兹涅茨曲线 污染指标 经济增长 The Retest of China’s Environmental Kuznets Curve Abstract: The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis is putted forward, which makes people understands the relationship between the environment and economic growth more profound. But the Environmental Kuznets Curve whose shape is inverted U is not absolute. To checkout whether the relationship between environmental quality and economic growth in China is in line with the Environmental Kuznets Curve‟s U shape or not, the article does empirical research on relevant indicators. In this paper, we choose 23 provinces „(municipalities and autonomous regions) environmental pollution indicators and economic growth indicators, from 1990 to 2010, to make a panel data econometric model. The empirical research results show that all the relationship between pollution index and economic growth is in line with inverted n-type. The fitting curve has two turning points. Research the second turning point ，which is an inflection point of an inverted u-shaped