GRAPES全球集合预报的集合卡尔曼变换初始扰动方案初步研究.PDFVIP

( ) 2008/ 66 4 052636 Acta Meteorologica Sinica 　气象学报 　 　 　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 GRAPES 全球集合预报的集合卡尔曼变换 初始扰动方案初步研究 1 ,2 2 1 马旭林 　薛纪善 　陆维松 MA Xulin1 ,2 　XU E Jishan2 　LU Weisong1 1. 南京信息工程大学 ,南京 ,210044 2. 中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点试验室 ,北京 ,100081 1. N anjin g U niversity of Inf orm ation Sciences Technology , N anjin g 210044 , China 2. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences , Beijin g 100081, China 收稿 改回. Ma Xulin , Xue Jishan , Lu Weisong. 2008. Preliminary study on ensemble transform Kalman f ilterbased initial perturbation scheme in GRAPES global ensemble prediction. Acta Meteorologica Sinica , 66 (4) :526 - 536 Abstract 　Initial perturbations scheme is one of the important problems in the ensemble prediction. In this paper , an ensemble initial perturbations scheme for GRAPES is developed in terms of the ensemble transform Kalman filter ( ET KF) method , and a new GRAPES global ensemble prediction system ( GEPS) is constructed. The spherical simplex 14member ensemble prediction experi ments , using the simulated observation network and error characteristics of simulated observations and innovationbased inflation , are carried out over almost two months. The structural characters , perturbation amplitudes , and growth characters of the ET KF initial perturbations are investigated , and the qualities and abilities for the ensemble initial perturbations are analyzed. The preliminary experimental results indicate that the ET KFbased GRAPES ensemble initial perturbations could identify main normal structures of analysis