兰州近60年气候变化的多时间尺度分析.pdfVIP

兰州市近60 年气候变化的多时间尺度分析 兰州商学院 王利霞、韩自豪、马栋华 摘要：用小波变换理论对兰州市历年（1953-2012 年）近60 年逐日气温和降水资 料进行了多层次时间尺度结构分析，其中存在的各种周期振荡及变化趋势可以用 二维小波系数图清楚地显现出来，其未来的演变趋势也可以用该图进行定性的估 计。利用小波分析技术，其结果表明:兰州市的气温和降水具有明显的周期性， 并且通过小波揭示其在时域中具有局部化的特征，即某一周期性的变化在某一时 段显著，气温具有明显 14 年和26 年的震荡周期，其年降水量具有2 年、4 年、 16 年和27 年的震荡周期。此外，也可以看出近60 年来，月平均气温有升高趋 势，月总降水也有减少的趋势，但都不明显，为掌握兰州的气候变化规律及今后 的气象预报服务工作提供了一定的参考价值。 关键词：兰州市；气候变化；小波分析；周期 Lanzhou city nearly 60 years of multiple time scale analysis of climate change Abstract: by using the theory of wavelet transform to Lanzhou city calendar year (1953-2012), nearly 60 years daily air temperature and precipitation data has carried on the multi-level time scale structure analysis, there are all kinds of periodic oscillation and can use the 2d wavelet coefficients change trend chart clearly appeared, the evolution of its future trend can also use qualitative estimates the figure. Using wavelet analysis technology, the results show that the temperature and precipitation in Lanzhou city has obvious periodicity, and reveals the in time domain by wavelet has the characteristics of localization, namely a cyclical change in a certain period of time, the temperature oscillation period of 14 years and 26 years, the annual precipitation, 4 years, 2 years for 16 years and 27 years oscillation cycle. Also, it can be seen in nearly 60 years, the monthly average temperature has increased trend, monthly total precipitation also has a tendency to reduce, but are not obvious, for climate change law and the future master of Lanzhou meteorological forecast service provides a certain reference value. Key words: Lanzhou city; Climate change; Wavelet analysis; cycle 目录 1 引言…………………………………………………………………………….…1 2 模型