英国学生关於历史中因果解释的理解进程-历史学科中心.PPTVIP

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 4.4 (cont.) 接續 Conditional thinking allows students to escape from the alternatives of an over-determined or an undetermined past-present. To explain why an event was ‘caused to happen’ no longer implies that it ‘had to happen’. 條件式思考允許學生避開過多決定的或無決定的過去現在關係選項。解釋一個事件「有其原因」不再隱含它「一定發生」的意思。 Students are now able to engage with counterfactual arguments as causal thought experiments. They also understand the role of trigger events in causal explanations. 學生現在能夠從事作為思維實驗的悖反事實性的思辨，他們也能瞭解導火線事件在因果解釋裡的角色。 Although few students make this explicit, conditional statements have the logical form ‘if not-p then not-q’. From this, statements of the form ‘if q then p’ are implied but the traditional causal statement ‘if p then q’ does not follow. 雖然少數學生才明白自覺，條件性陳述具有「若非P則非Q」的邏輯形式， 依此，「若Q則P」形式的述句隱涵在內，但傳統因果述句「若P則Q」則不成立。 It is only at this level that a students hold a conception of causal explanation particular to the discipline of History. 只有到這個層次學生才抱有專業歷史學科特有的因果解釋概念。 * 4.4 (cont.) 接續 4.4.1 Level 4 Examples. 第四層實例 Interviewer: Could anything other than WWII as we know it have followed from Hitler’s invasion of Poland in September 1939? 除了我們所知的二戰，有什麼其他可能會接著1939九月希特勒入侵波蘭發生？ Oran: It depends on what the something else was. 這要看其他可能是什麼意思。 Interviewer: Why? 為什麼呢？ Oran: When you think of all the ‘something else’s’ in the world, the ‘something else’s’ are everything. It’s like sets: you’ve got the World War and all these sets coming off which could have happened but didn’t. There’s so much that could have happened, but since he [Hitler] did what he did it just couldn’t. His actions triggered off the War. 當你想到世上所有「其他可能」，「其他可能」乃是任何事。就像一套一套：你有世界大戰和所有這些可能發生但沒有發生的套組脫離。可能發生的是如此之多，但由於希特勒作了他所做的事，這些可能都不可能了。他行動觸發了大戰。 Interviewer: But is there a set..?但有一套嗎？ Oran: Yes, you’ve got all the little round sets [draws diagram] and the great big sets of the World War overlapping …No!..You’ve got he invaded Poland and lots of little overlapping sets and in o