accounting for uncertainty in model-based prevalence estimation paratuberculosis control in dairy herds占基于模型的不确定性估计副结核患病率控制在奶牛.pdfVIP

Davidson et al. BMC Veterinary Research 2012, 8:159 /1746-6148/8/159 RESEARCH ARTICLE Open Access Accounting for uncertainty in model-based prevalence estimation: paratuberculosis control in dairy herds 1* 2 2 2 1 Ross S Davidson , Iain J McKendrick , Joanna C Wood , Glenn Marion , Alistair Greig , Karen Stevenson3, Michael Sharp4 and Michael R Hutchings1 Abstract Background: A common approach to the application of epidemiological models is to determine a single (point estimate) parameterisation using the information available in the literature. However, in many cases there is considerable uncertainty about parameter values, reflecting both the incomplete nature of current knowledge and natural variation, for example between farms. Furthermore model outcomes may be highly sensitive to different parameter values. Paratuberculosis is an infection for which many of the key parameter values are poorly understood and highly variable, and for such infections there is a need to develop and apply statistical techniques which make maximal use of available data. Results: A technique based on Latin hypercube sampling combined with a novel reweighting method was developed which enables parameter uncertainty and variability to be incorporated into a model-based framework for estimation of prevalence. The method was evaluated by applying it to a simulation of paratuberculosis in dairy herds which combines a continuous time stochastic algorithm with model features such as within herd variability in disease development and shedding, which have not been previously explored in paratuberculosis models. Generated sample parameter combinations were assigned a weight, determined by quantifying the model’s resultant ability to