中国经济结构调整和其动力研究.pdfVIP

中国经济结构调整及其动力研究1 2 3 李稻葵 ，徐翔 结构调整是中国经济当下最重要的核心问题之一。外部结构失衡体现于过高的贸易顺差， 内部失衡的表现则是居民消费比例过低。对于中国结构调整的进展，国内外学者的主流观点 是调整进展有限，结构失衡仍然严重。我们对这一判断提出质疑，我们认为中国经济结构已 经开始改善。我们的证据来自两点，一是贸易顺差正在迅速缩减，二是重新计算的居民消费 率的复苏。我们进而论述，结构改善的主要动力来自于市场机制，而非任何短期或刺激性政 策的驱动。即，迅速减少的农村剩余劳动力和不断提高的工资率使劳动收入占 GDP 比重不 断回升，并进一步推动居民可支配收入占 GDP 比重上升，这一趋势正是消费率出现 U 型回 升、结构改善的核心动力。因此，我们的结论是中国经济结构调整应该坚持市场化道路，让 市场机制更好地发挥作用。 关键词：结构调整 居民消费 劳动份额 市场机制 1 我们感谢许宪春、王有捐和冯俊新对本文所做的有益的评论和建议。 2 清华大学经济管理学院金融系教授，电子邮箱 lidk@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn 100084 3 清华大学经济管理学院金融系博士生，电子邮箱 xux.06@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn 100084 The Structural Change of the Chinese Economy David D. Li Sean Xiang Xu School of Economics and Management Tsinghua University Abstract In the paper, we examine the progress and mechanism of the structural change of the Chinese economy. Contrary to the overwhelming view in the literature, we provide evidence to show that the Chinese economy has made significant progress in structural change since the global financial crises. We find that trade surplus as well as current account balance as a share of GDP have steadily declined between 2007 and 2011. Moreover, using our new method of calculation, we show that private consumption has been increasing steadily in the share of GDP, from 36% to 38.5% during the same period. Finally, using regressions based on provincial data and model simulation, we argue that a market mechanism rather than policy stimulus was responsible for the structural change. That is, with diminishing surplus labor in