社会核算矩阵不同新方法的比较研究.PDF

27 2 Vol. 27, No2 2010 2 Statistical Research Feb. 2010 * : ( SocialA ccountingM atrix, SAM ) , RAS, 1997 SAM , 2002 SAM : , ; , , ; , , SAM : ; ; : C812: A: 1002- 45 5( 2010) 02- 0077- 0 Research on Comparing SocialAccountingMatrix pdatingM ethods W an X ingFan JinHu H anhui Abstract:Updating social accounting matrix ( SAM ), as a nonsurvey techn ique, is awl ays stresses. The paper uses 10 m ethods to update Jiangsu provinces m acro and m icro SAM from 1997 to 2002, includ ing RAS, generalized RAS and cross entropy methods.W e adopt s ignpreservation test, direction test and closeness test to compare the methods, and draw the follow ing conclusions. Firstly, quotientbased updating m ethods are better than distancebased m ethods. Second ly, s ign preservation m ethods also have good perform ance in d irection test and closeness test. Th ird ly, external estmi ation on key coefficients is necessary for upgrad ing SAM updating accuracy. K ey words: SAM; Updating m ethods; Competition 一引言 , , CGE ( InputOutput, IO), IO SAM ( , ) , , IO , [ 1] 2~ 3, Leontief , IO SAM () IO, [ 2] IO IO SAM ( SocialAccountingM atrix, 10, 1997 SAM SAM )SAM 2002 SAM, , ,