中国_未观测金融_指标体系的设计与测估_李建军.pdf

∃ 140 ∃ %数量经济技术经济研究 2010 年第5 期 中国 未观测金融 指标 体系的设计与测估 李 建 军 ( 中央财经大学金融学院) !∀ 未观测金融包括民间金融地下金融非法金融 个人之间的借贷以 及金融 计遗漏的部分在多层次信贷市场体系中, 未观测金融补充了正规金融的 不足, 发挥着一定的积极作用监测未观测金融对经济的影响需要构建相应的指标 体系, 本文基于金融经济 计原理, 设计衡量未观测金融的指标体系, 测算了 1982 年以来的指标数据, 分析未观测金融规模变化与经济运行之间的关系, 预测 其变化规律和趋势, 并就如何规范和监测未观测金融提出了相应的政策建议 # 未观测金融# 流量指标# 存量指标# 指标体系 # F820 # # # A Design and Estimation of Indicator System of Non observed Finance in China # # Abstract: N on observed finance includes informal finance, underground fi nance, illegal finance, personal lending and omit of financial statistics In the multi level credit mar et, non observed finance covers the financial service in the areas lac of formal financial service and impacts economic movement in some ex tent It is necessary to build a indicator system for supervising the non observed fi nance In this paper, the author designed indicator system of non observed finance and estimated the number of different indicators since 1982 based on financial and e conomic statistics theoryThe author also analyzed the relationship between non observed finance and economic movement and forecasted the changing trend of non observed finance The author suggested that the official of statistics should strengthen the research on how to account and measure non observed Key words: Non observed Finance; Indicator of Flow; Indicator of Stoc ; Indicator System 211 中国 未观测金融 指标体系的设计与测估 ∃ 141 ∃ , ( , ( , 1997) ( , 2001) , , Tsai ( 2001) Isa sson ( 2002) , , ,