数学模型与人口预测.pdf

数学建模与人 口预测 数学模型与人 口预测 —— 基于上海市人 口数据 赖增强1 陈沐妍2 中国矿业大学孙越崎学院 14 级本科 中国矿业大学电力工程学院 14 级本科 摘 要：中国是世界第一人口大国，人口问题始终是限制我国社会发展的决定性因素之一。 人口问题是由 人口在结构、分布、数量等方面快速变化而导致的人口与经济、社会以及环 境、资源之间的矛盾冲突。本文以上海市为例，进行人口增长模型的建立与问题的分析。属 预测问题中的综合增长率问题。基 上海市人口历年的原始数据利用 MATLAB 、EXCEL、 MAPINFO 等软件进行了统计分析，综合考虑人口分布与结构得出了该城市各时期人口数量、 结构以及分布的分析与预测。建立了Malthus、Logistic、Leslie 模型，利用非线性最小二乘 法得出预测数据，最终得到 2020 年和 2030 年的人口预测值。 关键词：非线性最小二乘法、人口预测、数学模型 Mathematical Model and Prediction of Population Population ata Based on Shanghai City Lai Zengqiang1 Chen Muyan2 Undergraduate-20 14, Sun Yueqi Honors College, China University of Mining and Technology Undergraduate-20 14, School of Electric Power Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology Abstract: China is the worlds largest population, and the population problem is always one of the decisive factors that restrict the development of our society. Population problem is the contradiction between population, economy, society, environment and resources due to the rapid changes in the structure, distribution and quantity of the population. This paper takes Shanghai city as an example, and analyzes the problem of population growth model. It belongs to the prediction problem in comprehensive growth rate. Based on the original data of Shanghai City, the use of MATLAB, EXCEL, MAPINFO and other software for statistical analysis, considering the population distribution and structure of the population, structure and distribution of the population, the analysis