王家春超长周期中的全局性拐点（Wang Jiachun the global inflection point in the extra long period）.docVIP

王家春超长周期中的全局性拐点（Wang Jiachun the global inflection point in the extra long period） Wang Jiachun: long cycle in the global inflection point -- love thought: the learning society leader Man has the instinct to look forward to better tomorrow. In a long span or the improvement of the material life of people in the process of accumulation of monetary wealth, is easy to a better tomorrow as a rule. But in fact, from nature to human society, the linear trajectory in any direction will sooner or later be denied, another round of quantitative change to qualitative change caused by another round of the denial of circulation, is the real fate. By looking at the future with this kind of thinking, it is possible for us to make a prediction that is close to reality. More difficult to reverse response to the greater dilemma Compared with the risk release of US subprime mortgage and its derivatives in 2008, the overall solvency of the current developed countries is a more serious and difficult reverse response dilemma The developed economies, and the main risk in 2008 subprime mortgage derivatives from the household sector; the main risk comes from PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) as the representative of Japan and Germany and France and other frontline economies, the old developed countries overall government debt cycle fracture pressure. Obviously, from a geographical point of view, the present risk level is much larger than in 2008. As a result of the extreme financial expansion in the last round, from 2010, most of the old developed countries have already increased their financial risk indicators to a more dangerous level. According to data released by OECD in 2010, except in a few countries Australia, Denmark, Sweden and Finland, the ratio of government debt to other developed countries to GDP almost all the more than 60% of the recognized warning line. Among them, Japan, Greece, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Portugal, the United States is more than 90%, respectiv