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中国农村的组织创新The Key Issue--how to renew the rural organization for the empowerments 温铁军 Prof. Wen Tiejun, Renmin University of China wentj@ruc.edu.cn 86-10(O),Secretary) 2005.11. 1. What we have met 中国的经济地理鸟瞰Birds-eye View of China’s Economic landscape 资源约束下的差别拉大Natural Resources Constraints the Expanding Gap 水土资源匹配的平原面积仅占1/8, 主要集中在沿海地区, 工农业经济和城市也集中在沿海平原；区域差别必然拉大，沿海城市地价必然上升。 Flat, arable land makes up only 12% of total territory, and is concentrated in the coastal regions, as is most agriculture, industry and cities. This enlarges the rural urban gap and raises the price of land in the coastal cities. 中国的高增长：改革前后的不同积累方式 How China Gains High growth ----Differences in Capital Accumulation Before and After Economic Reform 中国在1980年代改革之前后，主要是通过工农业产品的价格剪刀差提取积累；而在1980年代改革以后，更主要地是占有农村土地和劳动力资源来促进经济增长。 Before the 1980s economic reforms, most primary accumulation came from the price difference between urban and rural product prices; After the 1980s reforms, economic growth has been driven by reclamation of agricultural land and labor. 建国50年剪刀差不断增大Price gap widens over 50 years 改革以来中国经济增长与耕地征占The Link between Rapid Growth in Reforms and Rural Land Occupation Whatever-ism! 农村基本形势Basic Situation in Rural China 农地资源短缺限制农业规模经济，小农经济长期化 Small households’ economy will be continuing in 21st century, because land resources limit the “Economies of Scale” in Agriculture 农村人口与农户数量成倍增加 Rural Population and households doubled increased (overall, the percent of total population that is rural decreased 85% to 69% in latest 50 years ): Rural Pop.: 400 million to 900 million Number of households: 100 million to 240 million 农户经营规模与粮食商品率难以提高 Farm Size and Grain Consumption decreased: Among small household farms, 76% have less than 0.6 hectares; only 35-40% of total annual grain product goes to the market. 各国劳均耕地面积比较 Ratio of Arable Land vs. Rural Labor 3. 市场改革与农村困境Problems caused by Market 城乡差别 Urban/Rural: Income gap increased to 6:1 (pl