经贸关系对国际和平的影响研究——兼论两岸经贸关系对两岸.PDFVIP

经贸关系对国际和平的影响研究 ——兼论两岸经贸关系对两岸和平的作用 蔡洁 庄宗明 （华中师范大学经济学院，厦门大学经济学院） 摘要：冷战结束后经济全球化发展迅速，经贸关系对国际和平的影响日益凸现，国际贸易和 国际直接投资对国际和平的作用受到关注。本文在综述了学者们研究经贸关系对国际和平的 影响的文献后，采用 29 个国家 1991-2000 年的面板数据建立向量自回归模型，用广义脉冲 响应和方差分解法证明了国际贸易和国际直接投资对国际和平有推动作用，贸易和直接投资 还可相互促进发展国际和平。大陆和台湾间的政治问题一直无法彻底解决，本文通过格兰杰 检验发现，两岸经贸关系的增强与两岸和平间同样有因果关系，两岸经贸关系的发展在一定 程度上缓解了两岸冲突，对两岸和平起到了稳定作用。 关键词：经贸关系；国际和平；两岸 The Effect of Economic Relation on International Peace ──Relation between Mainland and Taiwan for Example Cai Jie Zhuang Zongming (Institute of Economics, Huazhong Normal University, Wuhan, 430079; School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361005) Abstract: After the Cold War, the globalization developed rapidly. The effect of economic relation on international peace becomes more and more remarkable. Especially, the effect of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) draws much attention. After the literature review, the paper used the panel data of 29 countries in 1991-2000 periods to do empirical research. Through constituting VAR model to do generalize impulse response and variance decomposition, the paper discovered that the trade and FDI has prominent effect in reducing international conflict, and trade and FDI could promote international peace complementarily. The political conflict between mainland and Taiwan is difficult to solve. The paper discovered that the development of trade and FDI between mainland and Taiwan is the Granger cause of their peace, so that could promote bilateral relation. Keywords: Economic Relation; International Peace; Mainland-Taiwan 一、引言 当今世界，国与国之间的冲突频频发生，在许多国家或地区，虽然表面没有 发生明显冲突，但实际上却存在潜在冲突的威胁。国家间发生冲突的主要原因， 在于国与国之间存在利益差异或矛盾。冷战结束后，经济全球化迅速发展，学者 们开始注重从国际社会存在的相互依赖关系中，特别是经贸的相互依赖关系中