国防支出与经济增长-国防经济与管理研究院.PDF

国防支出与经济增长：中国的经验研究（1985-2000 ）* 波– 内容提要 国防支出是国家公共支出的重要组成部分，在国家公共财政中占有很大比例， 对社会经济发展和国家安全意义重大。在对近年中国经济和国防支出的基本背景进行简 约分析后，文章选取 1985-2000 年的时间序列数据为样本，以新古典主义的经济增长、 储蓄、贸易平衡模型为工具从供给方面，以凯恩斯主义的国防支出需求模型为工具从需 求方面对国防支出与经济增长的关系进行OLS 回归分析。在 基础上，文章建立包含上 述方程的联立方程模型 （SEM ），通过2SLS 、3SLS 等方法对中 防支出与经济增长的 关系进行系统估计。 关 键 词：经济发展 国防支出 经济增长 中 DEFENCE EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A EMPIRAL RESEARCH FOR CHINA, 1985-2000 Chen Bo (The Institute of National Defense Economics and Management, Central University of Finance Economics, Beiji ng 100081) This paper contributes to the continuing debate on the economic effects of defense expenditure by undertaking a case study of China. After some background analysis of the economy and Defense expenditure, the paper investigates the determinants of China Defense expenditure as well as whether the Defense burden has played an important role in Chinas economic performance over the period 1985-2000. It estimates a Keynesian simultaneous equation model with a supply side, which allows the indirect effects of Defense expenditure to be captured explicitly. It concludes that the maj or determinants of China defense spending are not economic but strategic, and that the direct effect of defense spending on economic growth as well as the indirect effects through trade balance are all significantly negative. On the basis of such strong results, the paper concludes that defense spending is harmful for the China economy in 1985-2000. KEY WO