德意志银行-美元贬值温和推动通胀上升-美国宏观经济-US Economic Perspectives Dollar depreciation is a modest tailwind for inflation-20170810-Deutsche Bank.pdfVIP

Deutsche Bank Research North America Economics Date United States US Economic 10 August 2017 Perspectives Dollar depreciation is a modest tailwind for inflation ■ The trade-weighted dollar has fallen more than 2% in the past month and Matthew Luzzetti, PhD nearly 7% this year, leaving it near its weakest levels since mid-2015. At Senior Economist the same time, Fed officials have on balance sounded more concerned +1-212-250-6161 about soft inflation and a narrative has emerged that the US is stuck in a low inflation regime. Is this lack of excitement about the positive effects of Peter Hooper, PhD a weaker dollar on inflation justified, or is the market missing a potential Chief Economist catalyst for higher inflation in the coming quarters? +1-212-250-7352 ■ Based on our own inflation models and analysis cited by Fed officials, Brett Ryan recent dollar weakness – assuming that it does not reverse – could lift year-over-year core PCE inflation by about 0.2 percentage points by Senior US Economist mid-2018 and 0.1 percentage points by mid-2019. The actual impact +1-212-250-6294 would be larger if the dollar continues to depreciate or if we account for second-order effects on inflation through stronger growth, though the latter is likely to be limited given a relatively flat Phillips curve. ■ Although not a game changer in isolation, the timing of this peak response sugg