Reprint 459高分辨率数值模式应用於热带气旋强风或烈风的预报林静芝,黎守德.pdfVIP

Reprint 459 高分辨率數值模式應用於熱帶氣旋強風或烈風的預報 林靜芝，黎守德 第十六屆粵港澳氣象科技研討會報告， 中國，廣州，2002 年 1 月30 - 31 日 Application of a High-resolution Model in Forecasting Strong or Gale Force Winds associated with Tropical Cyclones C.C. Lam and S.T. Lai Hong Kong Observatory Abstract While numerical weather prediction models have generally improved in the forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in recent years, cyclone intensity remains an issue that needs to be tackled. In many cases, the cyclone circulation has to be artificially inserted into the model analyses for initialization through the use of bogussing schemes. Previous studies have shown that horizontal model resolution has a significant impact on intensity forecasts, with higher resolution giving a better representation of the inner structure of TCs. Meanwhile, denser non-conventional observations were also found to be important for vortex initialization in the model. In this study, a 6-km non-hydrostatic model of the ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System), originally developed by CAPS (Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms) in the United States, is used to simulate TCs Utor (0104) and Yutu (0107) in the 2001 TC season. Model capability in forecasting strong or gale force winds over Hong Kong will be evaluated. In addition to conventional observations, data from satellites such as sea surface winds from QuikSCAT, Doppler radars and automatic weather stations are also included in the data assimilation. 29 高分辨率數值模式應用於熱帶氣旋強高分辨率數值模式應用於熱帶氣旋強風或烈風的預報風或烈風的預報 高分辨率數值模式應用於熱帶氣旋高分辨率數值模式應用於熱帶氣旋強強風或烈風的預報風或烈風的預報 林靜芝 黎守德 香港㆝文台