基于GIS的城市洪水灾害风险评价及时空演变.pdfVIP

第 12 卷 第3 期 南 水 北 调 与 水 利 科 技 Vol.12 No. 3 2014 年 6 月 South2to2 North Water Transfers and Water Science Technology Jun. 2014 DOI: 10. 13476/ j . cnki. nsbdqk. 2014. 03. 037 GIS ) ) ) 以哈尔滨市为例 陈 鹏, 孙滢悦, 张立峰, 刘家福, 杜会石 ( 吉林师范大学 旅游与地理科学学院, 吉林 四平 136000) : 准确掌握洪水灾害风险的时空演变规律对城市防灾布局具有重要意义。利用集成化洪水灾害风险指数对哈 尔滨市洪水灾害风险进行了评价, 并利用马尔科夫链对洪水灾害风险的时空变化进行了分析。研究发现, 2000 年- 2010 年哈尔滨市高风险区面积逐渐增加, 较高风险区和中等风险区面积逐渐减少, 低风险区和较低风险区面积逐 渐增加, 但变化较小。十年来整个市区内洪水灾害风险的高风险逐渐增加, 整体风险呈增加趋势, 但局部变化不一。 各等级风险之间, 中等风险和高风险转换较活跃, 低风险和较低风险之间转换较稳定, 而其它风险区与高风险之间 转换最为活跃。 : 城市洪水灾害; 马尔科夫链; 时空演变; 风险转换; 哈尔滨 : TV 122 :A : 16722 1683( 2014) 0320170206 Research on Risk Assessment and Spatio2Temporal Variation of Urban Flood Disaster Based on GIS - a case study in Harbin CH EN Peng, SUN Ying2yue, ZHANG L2i feng, LIU Jia2fu, DU H u2i shi (College of Travel and Geograp hical Sciences, Jilin N ormal Univ ersity , S ip ing 136000, China) Abstract: Accurate know ledge of the spatial and temporal variations of flood disaster risk is of important significance for deter2 mining layout of urban disaster prevent ion. In this st udy, integrated flood risk index was used to evaluate the flood disaster risk in Harbin, and Markov Chain was used to analyze t he spatial and temporal variations of flood disaster risk.T he results show ed that ( 1) the area w ith very high flood risk in Harbin has increased, the area w ith relative high and moderate f lood risks has de2 creased, and the area w ith low flood risk has increased from 2000 t o 2010; (2) the high level of flood disaster risk has increased gradually in t he ten years,