二十一世纪天灾-崑山科技大学ePortfolio.DOC

巨災風險評估 丁仁東 崑山科技大學通識教育中心 摘要 進入二十一世紀全球天然災害逐年加劇，許多資料顯示全球約每13年天災次數增加一倍，面對如此頻繁的天災，產險業對巨災風險的評估也須要改變。產險業以往的作法，是長期維持一個低的產險費率，直到巨災發生後才巨幅的調漲，這種作法是不符合現今巨災頻繁的實況。合理的產險費率，是根據巨災逐年加劇之趨勢，每年加上一個期望增長率，使產險公司從產險年費中抽取較大比例，以儲備較高的巨災準備金來應付隨時可能發生的巨災賠償，這才是在現今頻繁天災的環境下對巨災風險合理的評估，也才能維繫產險業在巨災前後正常的運作，以保障人民生命與財產的安全，不致因頻繁巨災而造成營運的困難。政府也不致常常因產險業巨災賠償的混亂局面，必須作許多補救措施而動輒動用國庫。 ABSTRACT Into the twenty-first century the global natural disasters increased severely every year. Global data show that almost every 13 years the number of natural hazard events is doubled. Facing such frequent natural disasters, the way the insurance companies evaluate the risk of property damage from natural hazards also needs to have a fundamental change. In the past, most insurance companies keep a low insurance rate until the major natural disasters occurred. The insurance companies then doubled or tripled the insurance rate after the major events. This is not actually matching the trend of the frequent natural disasters. A reasonable property insurance rate is to consider the increasing trend of natural disasters to add an expected growth rate every year to the rate of previous year. With this the insurance companies can draw a higher portion from the annual premium to the reserve fund in coping with reimbursement of the loss due to the natural disasters. This is the reasonable assessment of the risk of property damages from natural disasters. This is also the proper way to operate the insurance business after the major natural disasters to protect people from the casualties and properties loss. This will lessen the responsibility of the government which quite often comes in for remedy for the chaotic insurance business after major natural disasters. 一、前言 進入二十一世紀，似乎天然災害發生的頻率增加，其威力也增強，造成的災害常常聳人聽聞，令人驚愕不已。近年來地震、雷雨、、、，。University of Louvain)的天災研究中心(Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters，CRED)資料庫所提