基于可用水量预测的梯级水电站水库调度函数.pdfVIP

Journal of Water Resources Research 水资源研究, 2014, 3, 257-266 Published Online June 2014 in Hans. /journal/jwrr /10.12677/jwrr.2014.33032 Cascaded Reservoirs Operation Rules Based on Predicted Available Water 1 1* 1 2 Dong Wang , Xinyu Wu , Sen Wang , Youan Guo 1 Institute of Hydropower Hydroinformation, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 2 Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower CO. LTD. Cascade Control Centre, Kunming * Email: dwang1989@126.com, wuxinyu@ th th th Received: May 5 , 2014; revised: May 12 , 2014; accepted: May 19 , 2014 Copyright © 2014 by authors and Hans Publishers Inc. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution International License (CC BY). /licenses/by/4.0/ Abstract The traditional operation function for cascaded reservoirs takes available water as the state vari- able. However, poor simulation results may be caused by estimation errors when using predicted inflow. For this reason, with predicted available water considered as the state variable, an opera- tion function and an optimization model are proposed in this paper. In this operation function, the predicted value equals existing storage in the current stage plus local inflow forecasted by sea- sonal ARIMA model, and the parameters are obtained by multiple regression method. The pro- posed optimization model aims to maximize annual average generating capacity with considera- tion of system reliability and extreme failure. A case study of Lancang River cascaded reservoirs shows that the proposed operation function can effectively consid