中国禽蛋市场回顾及未来5年展望.pdfVIP

产 品 预 测 中国禽蛋市场回顾及未来5 年展望 张 超 李干琼 于海鹏 王玉庭 李哲敏 （中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部农业信息服务技术重点实验室 北京 100081） 摘 要： 中国是世界禽蛋生产大国， 改革开放以来， 其禽蛋生产快速发展， 产量年均增长 7.6% 。 过去 5 年， 受整 体宏观经济环境以及消费需求等因素影响， 禽蛋产量逐年增长， 消费稳步增长， 蛋价创下历史新高， 养殖效益整体利 好， 贸易顺差不断扩大。 未来， 产业政策、 科技水平、 资源环境、 饲养风险等因素对家禽产业的机遇与挑战并存。 展 望期内， 中国禽蛋生产增速放缓， 消费稳步增长， 进出口贸易基本稳定。 关键词： 禽蛋； 市场； 价格； 影响因素； 展望 Chinas Poultry Eggs Market Review and Its Outlook for the Next Five Years Zhang Chao, Li Ganqiong, Yu Haipeng, Wang Yuting, Li Zhemin （ Agricultural Information Institute, CAAS; Key Laboratory of Agri-information Service Technology, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing 100081 ） Abstract ： China is one of the great powers of poultry eggs producing countries. Since the reform and opening up, Chinas poultry eggs production has developed fast, its annual growth rate attained 7.6%. Over the past five years, affected by factors such as the overall macroeconomic environment and consumption demand, poultry eggs production increased year by year; consumption grew steadily; poultry eggs prices hit a record high; overall breeding benefit was in good situation; trade surplus continued expanding. In the future, the factors such as industry policies, the level of science and technology, resources and environment, and feeding risk will make opportunities and challenges coexist in poultry industry. In the forecast period, Chinas poultry eggs production will slow down; consumption will grow steadily; import and export will be basically stable. Key words ： poultr