张掖市近50年气候变化特征.docx

张掖市近50年气候变化特征分析邢作栋（西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院甘肃兰州 730070）摘要：依据1960-2012年间甘肃省张掖市逐月气温和降水量的资料，对当地近50年的气候变化特征进行分析。结果表明：（1）张掖市年平均气温温整体上呈明显的上升趋势，年平均气温的气候倾向率为0.426℃/10a，明显高于近50a中国平均增温速率0.22℃ /10a，更高于近50a全球平均0.13℃/10a的增温速率。张掖市年和季平均气温均存在突变，年平均气温突变开始于1987—1990年前后，突变前后年平均气温均值相差1.09 ℃。（2）张掖市年平均最高和最低气温的变化特征与年平均气温基本相同。年平均最高气温的气候倾向率为0.3℃/10a，年平均最低气温的气候倾向率为0.474℃/10a。（3）张掖市年降水量整体呈上升趋势，年降水量的气候倾向率为0.333mm/10a。各季节平均气温秋季上升趋势最明显，秋季降水量的气候倾向率为2.251mm/10a。冬季降水量存在突变，突变开始点出现时间在1986年前后，突变前后降水量相差11.235mm。（4）张掖市年平均气温和年降水量的振荡主周期均为22a,并且贯穿于整个周期。关键词：气候变化；平均气温；降水量；张掖市Analysis on the climate change characteristics in nearly 50 years in Zhangye cityXING Zuo-dong（College of geography and environmental science, Northwest normal University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, Chian）Abstract： This thesis analyzes the information on the monthly temperature and precipitation of Zhangye city in Gansu province from the year of 1960 to the year of 2012. The climate change during the 50 years reflects three points as follows: firstly, the average temperature of every year and every quarter saw an obvious rising tendency. The annual average climate tendency rate was 0.426℃/10a, which was actual higher than that of China (0. 22℃ /10a) during the 50 years, even much higher than the global data (0.13℃ /10a). Also, the average temperature of every year and every quarter in Zhangye city varied suddenly. The former change started from about the year of 1987 to 1990, differing by 1.09 ℃. Secondly, the tendency of the annual average highest temperature as well as lowest temperature in this city, which were 0.474℃/10a and 0.3℃/10a respectively, were similar with the tendency of the annual average temperature. Thirdly, in Zhangye city, the average precipitation of every year and every month rose in general, especially in the autumn. The climate tendency rate of those were 0.333 mm/10a and 2.251mm/ 10a respectively. The average precipitation in winter varied suddenly from the year of 1986, differing by 11.235mm.Fourth,?The annual average temper