基于连续时间马尔可夫退化过程的牵引供电设备-中国电机工程学报.PDFVIP

第37 卷 第7 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.37 No.7 Apr. 5, 2017 2017 年4 月5 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2017 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 1937 DOI ：10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.160190 文章编号：0258-8013 (2017) 07-1937-09 中图分类号：TM 922.3 基于连续时间马尔可夫退化过程的牵引供电 设备可靠性预测方法研究 冯玎，林圣，张奥，孙小军，秦娜，何正友 (西南交通大学电气工程学院，四川省 成都市 610031) Research on Reliability Prediction Method for Traction Power Supply Equipment Based on Continuous Time Markov Degradation Process FENG Ding, LIN Sheng, ZHANG Ao, SUN Xiaojun, QIN Na, HE Zhengyou (School of Electrical Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, Sichuan Province, China) ABSTRACT: Reliability prediction is one of the key 留时间与状态转移速率，然后利用均匀加速技术求解可靠性 researches in the active maintenance technology for traction 参数，预测未来时刻处于各个状态的牵引供电设备数量。以 power supply system, which can provide foundation for the 实际牵引供电系统中27.5kV 真空断路器为例，按所提方法 equipment operation and maintenance decision-making. A 进行了可靠性预测实证分析，结果表明该方法能够有效利用 reliability prediction method for traction power supply 设备历史数据对大规模同类牵引供电设备的可靠性进行预 equipment based on continuous time Markov degradation 测，且预测结果准确合理，可为牵引供电设备的维修策略制 process was proposed. Based on continuous Markov process 定提供决策支持。 and IEEE standard, the equipment state was classified into four levels, i.e., normal, attentive, abnormal, and failure. The state 关键词：牵引供电设备；可靠性预测；马尔可夫过程；状态 duration and transition rate were obtained through equipment 划分；均匀加速技术 failure record. Then the uniform acceleration technique was 0 引言 applied to calculate r