Uncertainties in fish stock assessment University of …：渔业资源评估的不确定性大学….pptVIP

Uncertainty in Fcur (1) Assumed to follow a normal distribution; (2) Mean = 0.74 (equivalent to an annual exploitation rate of 52.3%); (3) CV = 30% (standard deviation = 0.222). Moderate uncertainty (Scenario I) Non-random uncertainty in M (with other parameters follow scenario I) Summary If uncertainty is considered, the determination of the stock status will be influenced by (a) magnitudes and nature of variations in parameters in the EPR model, (b) variation associated with current fishing mortality estimate; (c) the decision confidence level Natural mortality has a greater impacts on the estimation of P(Fcur F10%) than growth parameters, a higher natural mortality is likely to reduce the likelihood of defining the fishery as overfished, and vice versa. Chen, Y. and C. Wilson. 2002. A simulation study to evaluate impacts of uncertainty on the assessment of American lobster fishery in the Gulf of Maine. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 59: 1394-1403 (2) Bayesian stock assessment framework Data Fishery-dependent data catch size composition, CPUE, landings, sex ratio, proportion of V-notched lobster Fishery-independent data Survey size composition, survey index, sex ratio, proportion of V-notched lobster Models Population dynamics models Growth model; Stock-recruitment model Catch at size model; V-notching model; Maturation model; (2) Observation models Size-at-catch Fishery CPUE Survey abundance index Size-at-survey Sex ratio Proportion of V-notched lobsters Growth model Develop a growth transition matrix (1) Individual-based approach Probabilistic stepwise growth model (2) Von Bertalanffy growth model (1) Individual based model Stock-recruitment model Predicted statistics (3) Evaluation and comparative study Using Monte Carlo computer simulation approach Simulate a lobster fishery using series of random Bernoulli trials in computer simulation with known parameters Apply the new and other assessment model