国际货币与金融经济学-增补内容电子版.docVIP

P95增补内容： Should China Peg or Float? In 2003, most currencies of the largest U.S. trading partners appreciated relative to the dollars. Most of these currencies appreciated. The currency of the third-largest U.S. trading partner, the Chinese renminbi, was pegged to the dollar in a very narrow trading band. As China’s trade surplus with the United States continued to grow, so did foreign pressure on China to revalue or float the renminbi. To maintain the value of the renminbi, China purchased more than $60 billion in foreign exchange reserved in the first half of 2003 alone. Alan Greenspan, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, stated that China could not continue to purchase foreign exchange reserves indefinitely and would eventually need to float its currency or risk crisis in its financial system. Chinese officials, in contrast, claimed that the pegged-exchange-rate system was a success. Their claim was that the pegged system provided stability for the Chinese economy. Moving to a full float, they argued, might trigger a crisis in the banking system. Evolution of China’s Exchange Rate Regime Getting the exchange rate right is essential for economic stability and growth in developing countries, especially for China, which is under its way of economic and financial reform and accelerating its integration with the global goods and financial markets. Since the establishment of the People’s Bank of China (PBC) in December 1948 and the publication of renminbi, China’s exchange system has gradually evolved. Phase One (1949-1972): officially determined exchange rate and a single peg After the birth of the People’s Republic of China, its economy experienced a transition toward a strictly planned one between 1949 and 1952. The exchange rate of renminbi in this period was completely established by the People’s Bank of China (PBC) with occasional adjustments according to the economic needs and political considerations. The PBC determined the exchange rate on the basis of t