出口与经济增长：进一步的证据.docx

Exports and Economic Growth : Further EvidenceEXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTHFurther evidenceBela BALASSA*Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218, U.S.A.The World Bank, Washington, DC 20433, U.S.A.Received July 1977, revised version received September 1977This paper investigates the relationship between exports and economic growth in a group of eleven developing countries that have already established an industrial base. Separate consideration is given to manufactured and to total exports; in the case of the latter, adjustment is made for domestic and foreign investment and for increases in the labor force.Conceptual uia measurement issuesIn examining the effects of exports on economic growth in countries which have established an industrial base, we test the hypothesis that export-oriented policies lead to better growth performance than policies favoring import substitution. This result is said to obtain because export-oriented policies, which provide similar incentives to sales in domestic and in foreign markets, lead to resource allocation according to comparative advantage, allow for greater capacity utilization, permit the exploitation of economies of scale, generate technological improvements in response to competition abroad and, in labor-surplus countries, contribute to increased employment.In turn, once the easy stage of import substitution is over, substituting domestic production for imports entails rising costs due to the loss of economies of scale in small national markets and the relatively capital intensive nature of he products involved. As a result, the domestic resource cost of saving foreign exchange through continued import substitution under protection will exceed the domestic resource cost of earning foreign exchange through exports and the di