强震地面断裂评估的概率分析研究-世界地震工程-地震工程与工程振动.PDFVIP

21 1 V o l. 21, N o. 1 2005 3 W ORLD EARTH QUAKE ENG IN EER ING M ar. , 2005 : 1007-6069 ( 2005) 01- 0007- 05 1, 2 2 3 马东辉 李 刚 孙平善 ( 1. , 100084 2. , 100022 3. , 150080 ) : , , 1900 340 6 , , , : : P315 : A Probability analysis on the estim ation of ground ruptures induced by strong earthquakes 1, 2 2 3 MA Dong-hu i L I G ang SUN P ing- sh an ( 1. D epartm ent of C iv il Engin eering, T s inghua U n ivers ity, Beij ing 100084, Ch in a 2. Inst itu te of E arthquak e R esistance and D isaster R educt ion, B eijing U n ivers ity of T echn ology, Beijing 100022, C hina 3. Inst itu te of Eng ineering M echan ics, Ch ina Earthquake A dm in istrat ion, H arb in 150080, Ch ina) Abstract: In th is p ap er, the study situ ation o f se ism ic ground ruptures is summ arized. Based on the data of h istor-i ca l strong earthquakes in China, the seism ic ground ruptures occurred in 340 eventsw ith m agn itude over 6 in China m a in land since 1900 are analyzed stat istically, and the m agn itude-frequ ency curve of the se ism ic g round ruptures is obtained. It is po inted out that the curren t determ inistic estmi ation on the effects of the seism ic g round ruptures is in su ff icient. F inally, the smi p le prob abilistic estmi a tion m ethod of seism ic rupture effects is stud ied and the relevant probab ility level needed be considered for sites is discu ssed. K ey words: strong earthquake g round