包虫病传播的数学模型及控制策略研究包虫病传播的数学模型及控制策略研究.pdf

中国动物传染病学报 2011,19(4): 81-86 Chinese Journal of Animal Infectious Diseases ·综述· 包虫病传播的数学模型及控制策略研究 赵 瑜 1 ，康 云 2 1. 756000 2. （ 宁夏师范学院数学与计算机科学学院，固原 ； 宁夏固原市原州区动物疾病预防控制中心， 固原 756000 ） 摘　要： 关键词： O29:R183 A 1674-6422(2011)04-0081-06 中图分类号： 　　　　　 文献标识码： 　　　　 文章编号 : MATHEMATICAL MODELLING AND CONTROLLING OF ECHINOCOCCOSIS SPREAD 1 2 ZHAO Yu , KANG Yun (1.School of Math and Computer Science, Ningxia Teachers College, Guyuan 756000, China; 2. Center of Animal Disease Prevention and Control in Yuanzhou Section Guyuan City, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Guyuan 756000, China) Abstract: Based on analysis of the epidemic situation and the spread mechanism of echinococcosis, appropriate parameters were selected. The mathematical model of echinococcosis spreading between human beings and livestocks was established by using dynamics methods. The key factors infl uencing on spread and control of the disease were analyzed. The basic reproductive number was obtained which decides the disease spread or not. If the basic reproductive number was smaller than 1, echinococcosis would be eradicated. If the basic reproductive number was bigger than 1, echinococcosis would become a kind of endemic diseases. The model was simulated numerically using collected and estimated parameters, and the sensitivity of the infection coeffi c