第二次全球化时代并没有结束NBER working paper第二次全球化时代并没有结束NBER working paper.pdf

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES THE SECOND ERA OF GLOBALIZATION IS NOT YET OVER: AN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE Michael D. Bordo Working Paper 23786 /papers/w23786 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 September 2017 Paper prepared for the Reinventing Bretton Woods Conference: Living Without Globalization. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2017 by Michael D. Bordo. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. The Second Era of Globalization is Not Yet Over: An Historical Perspective Michael D. Bordo NBER Working Paper No. 23786 September 2017 JEL No. F6,N1 ABSTRACT The recent rise of populist anti-globalization political movements has led to concerns that the current wave of globalization that goes back to the 1870s may end in turmoil just like the first wave which ended after World War I. It is too soon to tell. The decline and then levelling off of trade and capital flows in recent years reflects the drastic decline in global real income during the Great Recession.