低频天气图方法在辽宁夏季延伸期强降水预报中的-中国气象局图书馆.pdf

气象科技 进展 低频天气图方法在辽宁夏季延伸期 强降水预报中的应用 1 1 2 3 4 4 胡春丽 李辑 陈伯民 王瀛 袁子鹏 陆忠艳 （1 辽宁省气象科学研究所，沈阳 110016；2 上海市气候中心，上海 200030； 3 辽宁省气象局，沈阳 110016；4 沈阳中心气象台，沈阳 110016） 摘要：基于低频天气图预报方法，分析夏季（6—8月）影响辽宁省强降水过程关键地区低频天气系统(低频气旋和低频 反气旋)的活动特征，并根据这些活动特征预报强降水过程，在2011年夏季用该方法进行辽宁地区强降水过程预报表 明，预报效果较好，且预报时效为10～20d，可以在月内强降水过程预报中应用。 关键词：低频天气图，延伸期，强降水过程 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2013.01.010 Precipitation Forecast from 10—20 Days by the Method of the Low-Frequency Synoptic Weather Map in Liaoning Province 1 1 2 3 4 4 Hu Chunli , Li Ji , Chen Bomin , Wang Ying , Yuan Zipeng , Lu Zhongyan (1 Institute of Meteorological Science of Liaoning Province, Shenyang 110016 2 Shanghai Climate Centre, Shanghai 200030 3 Liaoning Meteorological Bureau, Shenyang 110016 4 Liaoning Meteorological observatory, Shenyang 110016 ) Abstract: A new forecasting method, the low-frequency weather map (LFSC), is applied in Liaoning precipitation forecast from 10 to 20 days. By using LFSC, the active characteristics of the low-frequency cyclones and anticyclones are analyzed. Based on their active characteristics, the precipitation processes are forecasted. The forecast results are good in Liaoning region from June to August 2011 and its forecasting period of validity is about 10-20 days. The LFSC method can be applied to predict the precipitation process in the extended-range forecast from 10 to 20 days. Keywords: Low-frequency weather map, extended-range forecast, severe precipitation process 1 引言 行预报；二是针对持续性强的异常环流造成的重大过 现阶段，我国气象部门的预报、预测业务根据 程进行预