昆明市溃坝洪水模拟与风险管理.docVIP

昆明市溃坝洪水模拟与风险管理 徐霞 刘洪江 云南省科技厅科技宣传教育中心 云南财经大学云南省经济社会大数据研究院 云南省高校灾害风险管理重点实验室 X 关注成功！ 加关注后您将方便地在 我的关注中得到本文献的被引频次变化的通知！ 新浪微博 腾讯微博 人人网 开心网 豆瓣网 网易微博 摘????要： 昆明城区主要供水源为松华坝水库, 其库容不断增加, 存在地震溃坝的威胁。采用主体模型, 对昆明主城区的盘龙江松华坝水库出口至滇池入口段进行了模拟, 结果显示:时间上, 30分钟内是洪水高危害阶段, 其中前15分钟主要危害北部区域, 30分钟内全河道区域均受很大危害, 3045分钟洪水仍然大范围溢出, 45分钟后洪水逐渐消退。空间上, 盘龙江两侧300 m范围为溃坝洪水高风险区, 应及早制定城市极端洪水预案。根据模拟结果制定的风险管理对策为:对大坝安全进行评估, 加强大坝强度, 避免地震和极端事件溃坝;加强大坝巡逻警戒;加强洪水逃生宣传教育。本研究可为大震断裂带附近城市大型水库溃坝灾前防备、预案、综合防灾减灾规划等提供科学支持。 关键词： 主体模型; 溃坝; 洪水; 风险管理; 盘龙江; 水库; 作者简介：徐霞 (1974-) , 女, 四川省成都市人, 工程师, 主要从事科技管理和科技宣传工作. 作者简介：刘洪江 (1971-) , 男, 重庆市江津区人, 教授, 博士后, 主要从事灾害大数据工作. 收稿日期：2017-04-20 基金：国家自然科学基金创新群体项目“地理时空数据分析” ;国家自然科学基金项目“金沙江下游干流区泥石流产沙模型” SIMULATION AND RISK MANAGEMENT OF DAM-BREAK FLOOD IN KUNMING XU Xia LIU Hong-jiang Center for Science and Technology Propaganda and Education, Yunnan Science and Technology Department; Yunnan Provincial Big Data Research Institute, Yunnan University of Finance and Economics; Abstract： The living water supply for Kunming City is mainly supported by Songhua Reservoir with an increasing capacity. Due to the threatening of earthquake, there is a risk of dam breakage. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out the dam-break flood simulation for city flood disaster risk management and a scientific policy basis. The Agent-based model is used to simulate the dam-break flood. Results showthat: Flood has highly dangerous in the first 30 minutes, and the first 15 minutes mainly endanger the northern area, and next 15 minutes to the southern area. In this period, the whole river channel is subject to great harm. Within 30 to 45 minutes, flood is still a wide range of overflow, the flood gradually subsided after 45 minutes. In space, a 300 m buffer along Panlongjiang river has high risk. An early urban flood warning and plan should be developed. According to the simulation results, the risk management measures are as follows: to evaluate the dam safety, to strengthen the dam s