西安环境空气质量监测预警研究.PDF

西安市环境空气质量监测预警研究 西安财经学院 佘峥峥、李淼、刘文博 摘要 环境空气质量预警也称大气环境污染预警,是指根据某一区域或者某一城市的空气污 染物排放状况及未来一段时间内气象条件、大气扩散情况、下垫面因素等因子,通过监测、 评价、预测等手段,确定大气环境状态和环境质量变化的速度和趋势,以及达到某一变化限 度的时间,预测未来一段时间内的大气污染程度以及对人们日常生活带来的影响和危害, 把针对不同预报等级而提出的警戒信息及相应对策通过有序的程序、现代化信息管理方式 通报给政府相关部门和社会公众。 西安市环境空气质量的评定和预测，受到很多因素的影响，导致对环境空气质量的评 价难度大、准确性低。本文针对上述问题，我们从西安市环境监测站中搜集整理了西安市 2013-1-1 到2013-4-26 的环境空气质量监测数据，先运用了聚类分析和因子分析根据污染 因子的得分平均值的大小划分了新的环境空气质量评价等级标准，然后建立了ARIMA 模型， 预测了五月上旬空气质量因子得分情况，利用判别分析对预测结果进行预警分析，最后简 单的分析了模型中存在的不足。 关键字：环境 空气质量 ARIM 模型 因子分析 预警 1 Abstract Ambient air quality warning, also known as atmospheric environmental pollution early warning, refers to determine the state of atmospheric environment as well as the speed and trend of environmental quality change, and the time of reaching a certain limit, predict the degree of atmospheric pollution over a period of time and its effects or harm on Peoples Daily life according to air pollutant emission condition and future weather conditions in a certain area or a city and the meteorological conditions, atmospheric diffusion conditions, underlying surface factors over a period of time, which all by means of monitoring, evaluation, prediction, then report the warning information and the corresponding countermeasure for different forecast level to the relevant government departments and social public by an orderly procedure, modern information management. The environmental air quality assessment and prediction in Xi an is difficult and low accurate, influenced by many factors. Aiming at these problems, we collect xi an environmental air quality monitoring data of Jan. 1st 2013 to Apr. 26st 2013 from Xi’an environmental monitoring station, we firstly divide th