我国2010~2050年劳动力供给与需求预测.PDFVIP

34 5 2010 9 Vol34, No5 S ep tember 2010 76 Popu lation R esearch 我国 2010~ 2050年 劳动力供给与需求预测* 文章采取人口预测经济预测等多种预测方法, 对我国 2010~ 2050年劳动力供给 和需求进行了预测预测结 表明, 2016 年后我国劳动力供给和需求的关系将发生反转, 即使总 和生育率到 2020年提升至更替水平 2. 1并假定一直保持不变, 我国也将长期面临劳动力短缺的问 题, 低生育水平的巨大惯性对我国中长期劳动力市场具有不可逆转的影响文章通过比较不同生 育水平下劳动力供给和需求之间矛盾的阶段性特点, 提出短期促进就业, 中长期促进人口经济健 康持续发展的全方位政策 劳动力供给; 劳动力需求; 人口预测; 经济预测 齐明珠, 博士, 首都经济贸易大学人口与经济研究所副所长北京: 100070 Labor S upp ly and Labor Demand Forecasting in Ch ina, 2010- 2050 Q iM ingzhu Abstract: This paperforecasts al bor suppyl and al bor demand from 2010 to 2050 inChina by a dopting varoi us populatoi n and economy forecasting methods. Results show that real tionship be tween al bor supply and labor demandw ill reverse after the year 2016. Even if total fertility rate in creases to repal cement level in the year 2020 and assumes unchang ing trend in the future, Chinaw ill still face ol ng - term labor shortages, since the huge inertai of low birth rate has an irreversible effects to China al bormarket in the ol ng run. By comparing al bor supply and labor demand under d ifferent fertility scenarios, this paper proposes comprehensive policy suggestions related to short- term empol yment enhancement and ol ng- term promotion of hea lthy and susta inabel development of popual tion and economy. Keyw ords: Labor Suppyl, Labor emand, Popual toi n Forecast, Economci Forecast Author: Q iM ingzhu is Ph and Assocai te Professor, Institute of Population and Economics, Capita lUnvi ersity of Econom ci s and Business. Beijing, 100070. Emai:l mingzhuq@i hotma i.l com * 本研究是国家人口和计划生育委员会人口发展战略与! 十二五∀规划研究课题! 中国未来中长 人口发展与就 业趋势研究∀的部分内容 5 2010~ 2050 77 1