珠江流域极端降水频率遭遇分析.pdfVIP

Water Resour Manage DOI 10.1007/s11269-012-0094-1 Spatial Pattern Characterization and Multivariate Hydrological Frequency Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in the Pearl River Basin, China Lingling Zhao Jun Xia Leszek Sobkowiak Zhonggen Wang Fengrui Guo Received: 28 December 2010 /Accepted: 7 June 2012 # Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012 Abstract Consecutive extreme rainfall events, especially those having unfavourable spatio- temporal patterns, always trigger large floods. This paper aims to examine, through the multivariate hydrological frequency analysis, the probability of the synchronous occurrence of rainfall extremes in the Pearl River basin. The copula method together with the statio- narity and independence tests, which are crucial to the valid use of statistical methods in regional frequency analyses, were applied in the study. The obtained results indicate that: (1) major precipitation events of the annual maximum 1-, 3-, 5- and 7-day rainfall recorded at 42 stations are the flat looking series and variables are independent, (2) the marginal distribu- tion of all extreme rainfall variables in four homogeneous hydrologic regions fits the log- normal probability distribution and most of their joint distribution fits the Gumbel-Hougaard distribution, (3) on that basis the contour maps of the joint distribution of annual maximum 1-, 3-, 5- and 7-day rainfall between different regions are drawn and the probability of the synchronous occurrence of the extreme rainfalls in different regions are estimated. These findings have great practical value for the regional water resources and flood risk manage- ment and are important in exploration of the spatial patterns of rainfall extremes in the Pearl River basin in order to reveal the underlying linkages between precipitation and floods from a broader geographical perspective. L. Zhao (*) :J. Xia :Z. Wang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface