中国基本养老保险基金缺口模型及其应用.pdfVIP

15 1 系 统 工 程 理 论 方 法 应 用 V ol. 15 N o . 1 2006 2 SY ST EM S EN GI NEER IN G- T HE O RY M ET HO DO LO G Y A PP L ICA T IO N S Feb. 2006 : 1005-2542 2006) 01-0049-05 1 2 高建伟 , 　丁克诠 1. , 102206; 2. , 100039) 根据 1997 年国务院《关于建立统一的企业 工基本养老保险制度的决定》文件, 利用生存年金 理论得到测算我国基本养老保险基金缺口的精算模型。利用该模型, 针对我国目前发放养老金的实际运行机 制, 对影响基本养老保险基金缺口的因素进行风险排序及敏感性分析, 得出影响养老保险基金缺口的主要因 素, 从而给出缩减基金缺口的合理化建议。这对于定量测算我国养老保险基金缺口大小以及寻求解决养老保 险基金缺口的途径具有实际应用价值。 : 基本养老保险; 生存年金; 精算现值 : F 840: A The Model of Fund Gap on China Fundamental Pension Insurance and Its Applications - 1, - 2 GA O J ian w ei D I N G K e quan 1. Schoo l o f Bu siness A dm inist rat ion , No rt h China Elect ric Po wer Univ. , Beijing 102206, China; 2 . Mat hem atics Dept . of Graduate School of t he Chinese A cadem y of Sciences , Beijing 100039) Abst ract In t his paper, u sing life annuity t heor y combining wit h St ate Depart ment s the decision of es- tablishing consol idated corpo rat io n em ploy ee pension sy st em, w e derive t he act uarial model of measuring fund gap in t he f undament al pension insurance. A ccording t o real running syst em , w e quant itat ively ana- lyze the size of the gap , furt herm ore, by sensit iv ity analyz ing , we co nclude the main f act ors fo r inf luencing t he g ap , and t hen w e of f er t he r at ionalizat io n adv ice t o curtail t he g ap. T he paper has im po rt ant t heoret ical sig nif icance and pract ical applicat ion value f or quant it at ively measur ing and solving t he gap . Key words: f undam ent al pensio n insur ance; life annuit y; act uar ial pr esent v al ue 20 80 : , 90 ; , 1997 ,