基于BJ-RUC模式预报产品的北京冬半年道面温度预报模型1-气象.PDFVIP

基于BJ-RUC 模式预报产品的北京冬半年道面温度预报模型1 董颜 尤焕玲 郭文利 闵晶晶 北京市气象服务中心，北京 100089 提 要：选用2012 年11 月1 日-2013 年3 月30 日3km 分辨率RUC 模式输出的气象要素与5 个道面站数据（A1027 ，A1325 ， A1412 ，A1414 ，A1512 ）温度进行统计分析，按不同起报时次（08 h 、14 h 、05 h ）分别建立三类逐步回归统计模型预报未来 24 小时逐时道面温度，选出最优模型预报2013 年11 月-2014 年03 月期间道面温度。结果表明：道面温度与RUC 输出的2 米 温度、短波辐射显著相关，与长波辐射、湿度次相关；有显著气象因子参与的回归模型预报的道面温度好于仅加入前一天对 应时刻道面温度的回归模型，预报准确度可提高25% 以上，误差减少1℃以上；滚动筛选不同起报时次预报时段可将模型预 报误差控制在±3℃以内，且预报早高峰温度好于晚高峰，白天好于夜间，晴天好于其他天气类型。 关键词：道面温度，RUC 预报，回归模型 Based on the BJ-RUC Forecast Product for Models of Road Surface Temperature in the Winter Half Year for the Beijing Region Dong Yan You Huanling Guo Wenli Min Jingjing Beijing Meteorological Service Center, Beijing 100089 Abstract: Making a statistical analysis of the road surface temperature based on the selected 5 road stations’data, A1027, A1325, A1412, A1414, A1512, and the meteorological elements output from the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) numerical forecasting model with 3 km’s resolution from November 1, 2012 to March 30, 2013, we used the stepwise regression model methods to build 3 types of statistical models for road surface temperature 24 hours nowcasting in the winter half year for the different initial forecast times (08 h, 14 h and 05 h) and the different months. Then the best type is used to forecast the road surface temperature from November 1, 2013 to March 30, 2014. The results are as follows: there was a significant correlation between the road surface temperature and T2, as well as the short-wave radiation, and a secondarily best correlation with the long-wave radiation and humidity output from RUC. Compared to the type of statistical model with the only one factor covered, the road surface temperature for the previous day, the type of regression model with meteorologic