19-20-21 Growth Change (6) 中国经济发展与转型（英文版） 教学课件.pptVIP

Chinese Modern Economic History Growth and Structural Change Naughton, Chapter 6 Chinese Modern Economic History five areas of discussion in this chapter- Growth, investment, labor, GDP, globalization 6.1 Growth China was (is) unusual in its development path, because of its continued very high dependence on investment for growth, instead of consumption or growth in services; a very high dependence on manufacturing, especially for export; ability to transform institutions and society very quickly; and favorable demographics that will begin to change, in about ten years Technical note - many researchers have noted problems with economic statistics as reported by the China Statistics Bureau. There have been inconsistencies between provincial and national reporting data, inconsistencies of measurement, inconsistencies over time, and logical inconsistencies (recent growth in car purchases does not seem to have increased gasoline consumption). Chinese Modern Economic History A quick search of the literature does not point to recent discussion of this topic (last three years). There was much discussion of data problems prior to 2005. Perhaps the quality of data has been improved - but the auto purchase-gasoline discrepancy is just this past year, and there is an observed relationship between electrical production and GDP that has not been maintained in the last two years. Sometimes it is difficult to see what is going on. Chinese Modern Economic History 6.2 Investment High investment is generally a condition of rapid growth, but such sustained levels of investment in China have not been seen previously in the world. No one doubts the size of investment - the data are not really in question. The question is whether such investment can really continue, without severely distorting the economy and making adjustments in the future very painful. See page 147. The question is at what point investment is no longer very prod